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Written before the interest rate meeting, the blockbuster meeting, the Federal Reserve's three major priorities to preempt! Federal Reserve Bank

????This article is from: MacroMicroFinance M Square 3/21 (IV) At 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will announce the decision-making results of the March Interest Rate Conference. At this meeting, all the people hold their breath and wait. How will the Federal Reserve say that? In January, the Federal Reserve deleted the forward-looking guidelines, disclosed five major pigeon messages, and for the first time added a contraction statement, formally expressed its position to turn pigeons. Since then, the Bank of India has cut interest rates unexpectedly, the Bank of Canada's attitude has obviously changed, the European Central Bank has even announced the launch of the third round of TLTRO, and the global central bank has followed the Federal Reserve's turn, which has led to optimistic capital market conditions to push risky assets out of a strong rise. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's statement has a great impact on the market. Before the meeting, M square took the lead in putting forward three key points to share with investors: Key 1. How to adjust the Federal Reserve's interest rate matrix? 密钥2。How to adjust GDP and inflation? 密钥3。In what way is the high-profile abbreviation framework introduced? 密钥1。How to adjust the Fed's interest rate matrix? Do you remember the dot chart of the Federal Reserve last December, which cut this year's interest rate rise from three to two (yes, two more). However, since the January meeting, Powell and Brainard have both spoken in public and even mentioned that future members will discuss temporary price-targeting of inflation targets to stimulate inflation. 选项。From now on, the probability of FedWatch cutting interest rates by one yard this year has climbed to more than 20%. From this, we can see that this time it is bound to reduce the path of this year's interest rate increase, just how to adjust it. M Square believes that there are two scenarios: (1) Scenario 1: the number of interest rate hikes in 2019 dropped to one, requiring at least three members to reduce, which is a neutral approach, indicating that if the economic situation is expected to stabilize in the future, the Federal Reserve will still be able to raise interest rates. Scenario 2: There will be no interest rate hikes in 2019, and as many as seven members will be required to lower interest rates. This is a very biased approach. The Federal Reserve released conservative views on further interest rate hikes this year. M-Square Researcher: We think that if the Federal Reserve can smoothly cut interest rates once a year in 2019 scenario one (3-6 members down) is more appropriate, the main reasons are: 1) Pigeon tools should not be used up at one time! This adjustment to interest rate hike once (neutral) will keep the silver bullet and allow the market to rest properly. In the future, the inflation situation will determine whether to continue to take a biased attitude in June, that is to say, the trend will not be overreacted and the funds will be overheated to pursue risky assets. 2) Excessive bias will push capital into risky assets, and oil prices may rise too fast because of the favourable opportunity of capital. At that time, moderate inflation will give consumer momentum, prolong the environment or have the opportunity to be destroyed. Global central banks will face the risk of economic slowdown and forced tightening. (Don't forget that oil prices are also the key to this cycle.) Second, how to adjust GDP and inflation expectations? Last December, the Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2019 to 2.3% (before: 2.5%). At that time, consumption and corporate investment did show signs of retrenchment under the influence of slowing global demand prospects, government closures and stock market crashes. Fortunately, in the latest January data section, retail sales were 2.28% annually and non-defense capital financial year was 4.14% annually, which all recovered to a moderate growth level. However, the Q4 GDP consumption season in the United States was still strong, and the contribution of private inventory (0.13) was not significantly increased. The annual growth of corporate investment season was 6.2% annually and 7.2% year-on-year. The overall U.S. economy was in good shape. Even though strong growth spurred by Trump's policy last year has shifted to moderation, it is still the strongest economy in the world. In terms of current figures, the Federal Reserve should not further downgrade its GDP forecast. In the inflation sector, the latest January CPI annual 1.5%, December PCE price annual 1.75%, compared with the previous December forecast of 1.9%, in the case of WTI oil prices still below 60 shocks, the Fed will reduce PCE Inflation again. M-Square Researcher: The unexpected drop in non-agricultural sector at the beginning of the month was mainly caused by the February snowstorm (ADP still has 183,000 people), and wage growth rate is still strong at 3.4%. If the Fed can maintain the economic exp

This article is from: MacroMicroFinance M Square 3 21 IV At 2: 00 a. m., the Federal Reserve will announce the decisionmaking results of the March Interest Rate Conference. At this meeting, all the people hold their breath and wait. How will the Federal Reserve say that? In January, the Federal Reserve deleted the forwardlooking guidelines, disclosed five major pigeon messages, and for the first time added a contraction statement, formally expressed its position to turn pigeons. Since then, the Bank of India has cut interest rates unexpectedly, the Bank of Canada' s attitude has obviously changed, the European Central Bank has even announced the launch of the third round of TLTRO, and the global central bank has followed the Federal Reserve' s turn, which has led to optimistic capital market conditions to push risky assets out of a strong rise. Therefore, the Federal Reserve' s statement has a great impact on the market. Before the meeting, M square took the lead in putting forward three key points to share with investors: Key 1. How to adjust the Federal Reserve' s interest rate matrix? mi yao 2. How to adjust GDP and inflation? mi yao 3. In what way is the highprofile abbreviation framework introduced? mi yao 1. How to adjust the Fed' s interest rate matrix? Do you remember the dot chart of the Federal Reserve last December, which cut this year' s interest rate rise from three to two yes, two more. However, since the January meeting, Powell and Brainard have both spoken in public and even mentioned that future members will discuss temporary pricetargeting of inflation targets to stimulate inflation. xuan xiang. From now on, the probability of FedWatch cutting interest rates by one yard this year has climbed to more than 20. From this, we can see that this time it is bound to reduce the path of this year' s interest rate increase, just how to adjust it. M Square believes that there are two scenarios: 1 Scenario 1: the number of interest rate hikes in 2019 dropped to one, requiring at least three members to reduce, which is a neutral approach, indicating that if the economic situation is expected to stabilize in the future, the Federal Reserve will still be able to raise interest rates. Scenario 2: There will be no interest rate hikes in 2019, and as many as seven members will be required to lower interest rates. This is a very biased approach. The Federal Reserve released conservative views on further interest rate hikes this year. MSquare Researcher: We think that if the Federal Reserve can smoothly cut interest rates once a year in 2019 scenario one 36 members down is more appropriate, the main reasons are: 1 Pigeon tools should not be used up at one time! This adjustment to interest rate hike once neutral will keep the silver bullet and allow the market to rest properly. In the future, the inflation situation will determine whether to continue to take a biased attitude in June, that is to say, the trend will not be overreacted and the funds will be overheated to pursue risky assets. 2 Excessive bias will push capital into risky assets, and oil prices may rise too fast because of the favourable opportunity of capital. At that time, moderate inflation will give consumer momentum, prolong the environment or have the opportunity to be destroyed. Global central banks will face the risk of economic slowdown and forced tightening. Don' t forget that oil prices are also the key to this cycle. Second, how to adjust GDP and inflation expectations? Last December, the Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2019 to 2. 3 before: 2. 5. At that time, consumption and corporate investment did show signs of retrenchment under the influence of slowing global demand prospects, government closures and stock market crashes. Fortunately, in the latest January data section, retail sales were 2. 28 annually and nondefense capital financial year was 4. 14 annually, which all recovered to a moderate growth level. However, the Q4 GDP consumption season in the United States was still strong, and the contribution of private inventory 0. 13 was not significantly increased. The annual growth of corporate investment season was 6. 2 annually and 7. 2 yearonyear. The overall U. S. economy was in good shape. Even though strong growth spurred by Trump' s policy last year has shifted to moderation, it is still the strongest economy in the world. In terms of current figures, the Federal Reserve should not further downgrade its GDP forecast. In the inflation sector, the latest January CPI annual 1. 5, December PCE price annual 1. 75, compared with the previous December forecast of 1. 9, in the case of WTI oil prices still below 60 shocks, the Fed will reduce PCE Inflation again. MSquare Researcher: The unexpected drop in nonagricultural sector at the beginning of the month was mainly caused by the February snowstorm ADP still has 183, 000 people, and wage growth rate is still strong at 3. 4. If the Fed can maintain the economic exp

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????作者:克利是一个集10个童话,其中一些是格林兄弟的童话。我犹豫着选择这本书。我是一颗世俗的心。我心中没有童话,也不喜欢王子和公主从此幸福地生活在一起的故事。我总觉得这样的故事会误导孩子们,给他们灌输错误的婚姻和爱情观。然而,孩子毕竟是孩子。他们仍然喜欢王隆鼻精油_今日消息子和公主。而且,故事的语言更加优美。阅读它可能有助于提高文学素养。有几个故事我们都知道,如“美丽与野兽”和“拇指姑娘”。我有耐心读了这十个童话故事,几乎每一个都以王子和公主幸福地生活在一起而告终。如果不是为了学习语言表达和鼓励孩子,我会放弃阅读。当我女儿读完后,我问她时代新材股吧_今日消息是否喜欢这本童话集。她说她喜欢。我说,“有点无聊。永远是很久以前,永远是王子和公主。”女儿说:“妈妈,这是个童话!”“但这根本不是真的。”我继续说,“你认识戴安娜吗?”女儿说:“我记得你看过她的纪录片。”我说:“她的结局远非童话。女儿说:“妈妈,你知道,你知道。”“你认为哪一个最有趣?”我又问了一遍。”“小野玫瑰,”她说,“被一只老鹰带走,一直住在鸟巢里。”这很有趣。“那么你想成为什么样的角色?”我又问了一遍。她说:“我不知道。也许是红玫瑰。别问我为什么,我就是这么想的。突然间我的问题被堵住了。我不得不说,“我最喜欢美和野兽,因为美最终学会了忽视外表,关注心灵。九寨沟资料_今日消息我也最喜欢红落拓_今日消息玫瑰,因为它们到处都是刺。听到这个,女儿放声大笑。后记我星期天有足香港买手表_今日消息够的时间,所以我希望在那一天写完。然而,女儿昨天不想花太多时间看书,一本书《美女与野兽与其他人》,她放下书,拿起书,又放下,最后决定不看书。我暗示她假装不知道。我有点不耐烦,说话不太好。幸运的是,我及时冷静下来,知道自己错了。我的女儿也不应该被鄂尔多斯论坛_今日消息强迫去阅读,也不应该被要求按照我的时间表去阅读以完成我的写作。有鉴于此,我们度过了一个轻松的一天,孩子们都很开心,我真的煮熟了。这家人玩得很开心,一起度过了一个愉快的周末。幸运的是,我及时醒来,否则小的会引起不快乐,大的会让孩子产生反心理,原来她爱读书,如果我“子弹”她,可能会让她讨厌读书,这是不值得的损失。就像伊索寓言中的龟兔赛跑一样,我女儿是一直坚持的小龟,而不是聪明的小兔子,所以她可能很慢,我需要耐心等待。-结束-

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